“The last weeks of a presidential election are often spent waiting for an ‘October Surprise’ – a miraculous or devastating last-minute event that tips the electorate one way or another.”
—Andrew Naughtie in the British online newspaper “The Independent,” Oct. 2, 2020.
“October Surprise”
—a term coined by attorney and espionage veteran William J. Casey during the 1980 Presidential campaign.
In the annals of political history in these United States, the phenomenon of “the October Surprise” reigns supreme. It refers to the established tradition of last minute revelations of a provocative nature, emerging in the month prior to the November Presidential Election, which turned the tide of the most momentous political contests in the country.
Cloak and dagger
“I would never do anything to encourage … Saigon not to come to the table.”
—from a conversation between Lyndon Baines Johnson and Richard M. Nixon recorded on audiotape on Nov. 3, 1968.
The history of this phenomenon may be traced back to the 1800s, but for brevity’s sake we will focus on the 20th century, specifically the Vietnam War. As Richard Nixon mounted his second bid for the Oval Office, outgoing President Lyndon Johnson halted U.S. bombing in Southeast Asia in an effort to leverage peace talks in Paris on Oct. 31, and sway the coming election in favor of Democratic Vice President Hubert Humphrey, who enjoyed a slim lead in the polls. Nixon countered this maneuver via back-channel to encourage a stall in negotiations until after the election, suggesting that the South Vietnamese would get more favorable treatment if the Republicans won. In essence, Nixon “threw a monkey wrench” into Johnson’s peace negotiations, and won the election. Emboldened by their success in this illegal exercise in conniving, their confidence led to what later became known as Watergate.
“The Carter administration was not the only group entering into hostage-release discussions with Iran. The other was the Reagan campaign team, headed by William Casey, later named Reagan’s director at the CIA. The worst nightmare of that team was that Carter would succeed in releasing the hostages for a triumphant return right before the election, thereby sweeping him into a second term.”
—from an April 25, 1991 website post by Donella H. Meadows.
Election year 1980 saw the nation embroiled in a hostage crisis in Iran, as 52 Americans were taken captive to signal that revolutionary forces under Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini would end meddling by the United States in the country’s affairs. Incumbent President Jimmy Carter’s staff worked feverishly to secure the hostage release as Election Day 1980 loomed, along with his hopes for a second term in the White House. Opponent Ronald Reagan, abetted by campaign manager and covert operative William Casey (who would serve as his future CIA Director), countered the possible freeing of the prisoners (and securing Carter’s reelection). Utilizing the tried and true technique of back-channel diplomatic manipulation, they encouraged the new Iranian regime to postpone the release of their prisoners until the aftermath of the general election.
Perhaps one hour after Reagan was sworn in and while he delivered his inaugural address, the 52 hostages were released on Jan. 20 and airlifted to U.S. bases in West Germany.
As a result, Jimmy Carter went down as an ineffective chief executive, while Ronald Reagan has been hailed as the figurehead of Reaganomics, an era of dynamism and entrepreneurship as the result of conservative reforms.
In retrospect, Reagan and his team denied involvement in subjecting the detainees to months of maltreatment and privation in order to win a political contest. In the interim, prominent GOP insiders and individuals on the opposite side of the political spectrum have given credence to these allegations. Joseph Verner Reed, a key figure in the administrations of Reagan and George H. W. Bush, is documented as saying “I’m proud of my role in doing anything I could to delay the release of the hostages until after the election.”
Among the principal White House aides on the National Security Council staff during this period, Gary G. Sick wrote a 1991 book on his experiences, titled appropriately enough “October Surprise: America’s hostages in Iran and the election of Ronald Reagan.” In it he provided compelling, not conclusive evidence that the GOP apparatus engineered the rigging of a major political event.
As Carter entered hospice care in 2023, Texas politician Ben Barnes, perhaps prompted by a guilty conscience, revealed in the New York Times that he’d flown across the Middle East on a clandestine mission in the company of Texas Gov. John Connally. This trip in the summer of 1980 was specifically to facilitate the sabotage of Carter’s reelection that November. Forty-three years after the fact the 85-year-old former Lt. Governor and real estate magnate decided to come clean about his involvement in deception that swayed the election of the highest office in the land.
“Knowing that the end is near for President Carter put it on my mind more and more and more,” he said.
“I’m automatically attracted to beautiful women—I just start kissing them. It’s like a magnet. Just kiss. I don’t even wait. And when you’re a star, they let you do it. You can do anything.”
—Donald Trump , though married in 2005 was recorded saying the above.
Two can play that game
In the wind up to the 2016 Presidential Election, the usual melodrama surrounding this momentous event spiked in early October when the Washington Post published an article accompanied by a video of nominee Trump recorded ten years prior. During the course of the recording he waxed on his ability as a public figure to take carnal liberties with women, well before he entered the political arena. This disclosure prompted a rare response, especially for Trump. He issued an official apology.
This recorded admission of sexual impropriety was trumped (no pun intended) by revelations that Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton had previously used computer programs maintained by companies (commonly called servers) in the private sector to send and receive emails. This raised concerns about security breaches during the course of her tenure as Secretary of State during the Barack Obama administration. FBI inquiries eventually found that no classified or confidential materials had been transmitted, but the accusations are cited as a reason behind Trump’s narrow victory in the 2016 election.
More than a superstition
“You know, in 2016, I didn’t really have any idea how effective the kind of conspiracy theories and all of the attacks on me were in getting people to have just extraordinary views about me.”
—Hillary Clinton during a speech in Arizona on Oct. 1, 2024
“…this thing is a long way from decided.”
—Democratic strategist James Carville on CNN, Oct. 5, 2024
Needless-to-say, the current political climate has afforded ample controversies well before the end of September. These include Joe Biden’s debate meltdown, the intrusion of a new nominee four months before the election, two failed assassination attempts on Trump, and various and sundry other relatively minor distractions.
Yet and still, the possibility of additional malfeasance weighs heavily on the psyche of informed parties, including former candidate Hillary Clinton.
“I anticipate something will happen in October, as it always does,” she said in a Sept. 27 interview with Margaret Hoover on PBS.
“…There will be concerted efforts to distort and pervert Kamala Harris, who she is, what she stands for, what she’s done.”
She cited the possibility of foreign interference including social media disinformation originating from China, Iran, Russia, and other locales.
Her sentiments are echoed by a polar opposite ideologically, Republican campaign strategist Michael DuHaime.
“The real surprise will be not about them, but an issue perhaps they have yet to prepare for,” DuHaime said in Newsweek. He raised the possibility that a potential bombshell might be issue-oriented rather than the personal attacks which have monopolized media coverage.
James Carville, who orchestrated Bill Clinton’s victory in the 1992 Presidential election, believes the drama is not over.
“Something tells me something else is going to happen. I don’t know what it is. But the idea we‘ve got 42 days to go, six weeks. This is a sprint to the finish. I think there’s another plot twist coming here.”
Another Republican strategist, Scott Jennings, suggests additional revelations will have more of an impact on Harris than her scandal-prone opponent.
“It is going to be hard to ‘surprise’ the electorate in October about Trump,” he said in another statement to Newsweek.
“What else do you want? He’s been indicted and convicted. He’s nearly been assassinated… twice. He was president and survived two impeachments. I mean what else can you do to the guy?”
